ABSTRACT
Background: Excessive Mortality is considered an especially useful indicator to assess the health impact of COVID-19 at the international level;its employment has been increasing throughout 2021, but in the national scientific literature its presence is, as far as we know, null. Objectives: to define and discuss the characteristics and computation requirements. To illustrate the use of the indicator through calculation of Excessive Mortality for Cuba, and compare results with other countries. Methods: Illustrative study of the use and interpretation of an indicator of COVID-19 impact. Results: Excessive Mortality in Cuba compares favorably with that of other countries, in particular in the Latin American region. Conclusions: The incidence of the disease, together with the Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions implemented by Governments, among other factors, influence Excessive Mortality. In the case of Cuba, it is necessary to calculate the Excessive Mortality for 2021, given that in that year the highest incidence rates were observed, and thus contribute to the evaluation of the global resilience of our Health System in the face of the pandemic.
ABSTRACT
Introduction: Havana city was the most complex territory at the national level facingthe first outbreak of COVID-19. Its condition of capital, the population density, the limited geographical delimitation between its municipalities, the high inter-municipal and inter-provincial flow of people, added to the fact that it is the province that receives the largest number of travelers from abroad, conferred particularities on this territory. Objective: To determine the main clinical-epidemiological characteristics of patients affected by COVID-19 living in Havana. Methods: An observational, analytical, cross-sectional study was carried out. The sample contained 431 patients, older than one year, with epidemiological discharge from the SARS-CoV-2 infection. To collect information, a questionnaire was applied through an interview. Results: The average age of the sample was 45 years. More than half of the cases evolved in a symptomatic way (not serious or serious). Fever was the most frequent clinical manifestation. The individuals included in the sample, with blood group O or with a background of asthma, showed less risk of presenting symptomatic forms of the disease. Conclusions: The results suggest that age is the main risk factor for developing symptomatic forms (not severe or severe) of COVID-19. On the contrary, blood group O and a history of asthma are protective factors for these forms of clinical evolution. © 2021, Editorial Ciencias Medicas. All rights reserved.
ABSTRACT
Epidemiology and the statistical-mathematical methods associated with it are fields that acquire relevance in light of the confrontation with the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Cuba. To optimize efforts in future battles, it is necessary to critically analyze what has been done in this regard. The objective of this work is to identify the shortcomings in the epidemiological approach and associated statistical-mathematical techniques, in the statistical treatment of the course of the COVID-19 epidemic. A documentary review was carried out, mainly of Cuban medical journals, and in the Pubmed database. Articles and reports were selected that dealt with the subject of COVID-19 from an epidemiological and/or statistical-mathematical perspective. The use of statistical-mathematical techniques without an adequate epidemiological basis can generate false expectations and make it difficult to make adequate decisions. This occurs, in particular, with models that aim to describe, analyze and predict the behavior of the curves of active cases. The issues discussed, of a statistical-epidemiological nature, can contribute modestly to the necessary debates, without which it is impossible to make an objective assessment of the situation.